Efectos de las condicionalidades del FMI en las políticas económicas del Ecuador: análisis de su impacto y sostenibilidad.

Abstract

This research paper conducts a detailed analysis of the implications of the conditionalities established by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Ecuador, following the agreement signed in 2019. This study seeks to examine not only the economic and social effects of these measures, but also their long-term impact on the country's economic structure. In particular, special attention is paid to the context of a dollarized country, where the lack of autonomy in monetary policy considerably limits the tools available to respond to economic crises. The research also explores how dependence on external financing and oil revenues has conditioned the country's ability to implement sustainable and resilient economic policies. Under the framework of the Extended Facility (EFF) program, Ecuador implemented various structural reforms aimed at reducing the fiscal deficit, restructuring external debt, and making the labor market more flexible. These policies were applied in an already challenging environment, aggravated by the health and economic crisis derived from the COVID-19 pandemic, which increased its impact on the population. In addition to the external pressures generated by the conditions imposed by the IMF, the country faced internal restrictions that made it difficult to implement more inclusive economic strategies. These reforms, although focused on stabilizing public finances, have generated collateral effects that have exacerbated social inequalities and reduced the State's capacity to serve key sectors. The analysis shows how these reforms have impacted essential sectors such as health, education, and employment, disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable groups in society. The elimination of subsidies and cuts in social programs have resulted in a significant increase in the cost of living, contributing to social unrest and mass demonstrations, such as the protests of 2019. In addition, the decrease in public spending has negatively impacted investment in infrastructure, deteriorating the quality of essential services and generating discontent in the population. Added to this is Ecuador's historical dependence on oil revenues and external financing, which has restricted the government's ability to implement expansionary economic policies to cushion the negative effects of these measures. At the macroeconomic level, while some of these policies have made it possible to stabilize financial indicators and restore investor confidence, the social cost has been high. The reduction in public spending has limited access to basic services, while labor flexibility has generated greater job insecurity, affecting the quality of life of thousands of Ecuadorians. Likewise, the lack of diversification of the economy has increased the country's vulnerability to fluctuations in oil prices and global economic crises, which highlights the need for a more robust and adaptable economic model. In conclusion, this study suggests that it is necessary to adopt a more balanced approach to the country's economic management. Among the recommendations put forward are the renegotiation of the terms of the agreements with the IMF to obtain more favorable conditions, the diversification of the productive matrix to reduce dependence on oil, and the adoption of policies that strengthen social protection networks. In addition, it is essential that the government promote greater investment in strategic sectors such as education and technology, in order to boost productivity and generate sustainable employment opportunities. These measures would mitigate the negative effects of economic reforms and promote sustainable, equitable development that is resilient to future economic crises, while guaranteeing fiscal stability and the well-being of the population.