Impacto en la variación del impuesto a la salida de divisas y su relación con la balanza comercial en el Ecuador 2009 - 2022.

Abstract

The research examines the impact of the Exit Tax on Foreign Exchange (ISD) on imports in Ecuador since its introduction in 2007. Despite strengthening public finances, the ISD has harmed the trade balance. The study analyzes the effect of ISD tariff reduction on imports of strategic goods and its long-term impact on the trade balance, relating it to the dilemma between globalization and protectionism. It reveals that a 1% increase in the ISD tariff rate reduces imports by 0.48%, while a 1% increase in imports raises GDP by 0.42 points. Additionally, each 1.44-point increase in imports would result in a 1% growth in ISD revenue. It is concluded that tariff reduction, although it may disrupt the trade balance, is feasible in the long term to increase productivity and leverage the competitive advantage in the production of foreign strategic goods.