Ecuador: determinantes de la tasa de desempleo, periodo 1990 - 2020.

Abstract

Unemployment is a macroeconomic variable of major emphasis in a country, it is considered a global problem that directly affects all economies. The present research aims to analyze the determinants that affect the variation of the unemployment rate in Ecuador period 1990-2020 through an econometric model of Ordinary Least Squares, for which the historical information of the bases was collected, processed and analyzed. of data from the World Bank and the Central Bank of Ecuador. The results obtained from the multiple linear estimation model present a coefficient of determination of 0.8155, which indicates that 81.55% of the time the unemployment rate in the country is explained by the independent variables, at the same time with the application of the tests. The White test and Shapiro-Wilks corroborated the validity of the model and the significance of the set of variables. It is concluded that as the Gross Domestic Product and remittances increase, the unemployment rate decreases, while as inflation and the population increase, the unemployment rate will also increase and vice versa. In addition, to face this problem, it is important to develop and implement economic policies aimed at reducing unemployment levels in the country.