Impacto de choques exógenos petroleros sobre algunos indicadores macroeconómicos en el Ecuador.

Abstract

Ecuador is a small and open economy, with hardly any influence on the conditions of international markets, and therefore exposed to exogenous shocks, such as an increase in the international interest rate or an increase in the oil price. Likewise, due to its status as a dollarized economy, the responsibility for the stabilization of cycles and the promotion of growth lies with fiscal policy. The objective of this research is to estimate the impact of exogenous oil shocks on some macroeconomic indicators of the Ecuadorian economy, in the period 2007-2017 with monthly frequency data. The methodology of the work is explanatory and uses the standard technique of Autoregressive Vectors (VAR) to analyze the impulse-response functions that result from the estimation, using an identification scheme through the decomposition of Cholesky. The empirical findings reveal an impact of the same sign that goes from the oil price to the indicator that reflects the economic activity, which means that in the face of unexpected exogenous shocks in the oil market the response of the output will be of the same sign, but this shock does not influence at the level of consumer prices directly, but it does so through aggregate demand