“Análisis de la vulnerabilidad ante riesgos naturales de la subcuenca del río Casacay”

Abstract

This research aimed to analyze the vulnerability of the Casacay River sub-basin to natural hazards through the identification of specific threats and the evaluation of the territory's susceptibility, in order to provide technical inputs for risk management. The methodology was developed in three phases: first, three priority natural hazards—forest fires, soil erosion, and droughts—were identified and mapped using Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. Subsequently, the sub-basin was divided into three altitudinal zones (upper, middle, and lower) to spatially differentiate levels of exposure. Finally, a qualitative vulnerability analysis was carried out through the application of matrices, considering physical, social, and environmental factors in each zone. The results indicated that forest fires pose a greater risk in the middle and lower zones due to anthropogenic pressure and the reduction of vegetation cover. Soil erosion showed high severity in the middle zone, associated with slope conditions and inadequate agricultural practices. In the case of droughts, a generalized medium vulnerability was identified throughout the sub-basin, as a result of homogeneous climatic conditions and limited water management. The vulnerability matrices revealed that the middle zone is the most critical, as it concentrates high levels of exposure and sensitivity for the three risks evaluated, while the upper zone retains more favorable conditions for resilience. In conclusion, the Casacay River sub-basin presents a scenario of differential vulnerability that must be addressed from an integrated territorial management approach, prioritizing prevention and adaptation actions in the most exposed areas. The methodological approach adopted, based on GIS and multicriteria analysis, provides a valuable tool to guide land-use planning, environmental conservation, and disaster risk reduction policies.