Monitoreo satelital de aerosoles mediante datos aod de modis: análisis de tendencias de calidad del aire asociadas a la exportación de concentrado de cobre en Puerto Bolívar, Ecuador.

Abstract

Air quality is strongly influenced by climatic and anthropogenic factors and regulating the impact of outdoor activities is essential. In this context, this research aimed to evaluate the influence of copper concentrate exports on air quality in Puerto Bolívar. Data from the MODIS MCD19A2 product were used to compile the AOD for the period 2014–2024, as well as information on copper concentrate exports, obtained from the 2023 preliminary report, to determine a correlation between both variables. Additionally, information on wind speed and direction was collected from the Granja Santa Inés station to develop a wind rose to identify the potential dispersion direction of particulate matter. The results obtained using segmented regression and the ARIMA model indicated no change in the AOD trend, given that no break points were identified during the analyzed period. The ADF test yielded a statistic of -9.1393 and a p-value of 0, confirming stationarity of the AOD. Linear regression analysis between copper concentrate exports and AOD revealed an absence of correlation between these variables, supported by the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, which were -0.010 and -0.096, respectively. Finally, the wind rose showed a northward dispersion trend; however, the prevailing wind speed was insufficient to transport the particulate matter over long distances.