Evaluación hidrológica de vulnerabilidad a inundaciones en el barrio Quito, cantón Santa Rosa.

Abstract

The present study addresses hydrological and hydraulic modeling with the objective of evaluating the availability and use of water resources in the northwestern area of Cantón Santa Rosa, particularly in Barrio Quito, identified as a sector vulnerable to flooding. The research is based on the collection and analysis of rainfall data obtained through NASA's Giovanni satellite, due to the lack of complete and updated information from the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of Ecuador (INAMHI). Three main causes were identified as aggravating factors in this issue: intense rainfall influenced by climate change, a deficient drainage system with deteriorated pipelines, and soil saturation, which reduces infiltration capacity and increases surface runoff. These factors contribute to the overflow of the Santa Rosa River, increasing the risk of structural damage, human losses, and the spread of diseases. To assess the magnitude of the risk, a hydraulic analysis was conducted using ArcGIS, complemented with the HEC-GeoRAS extension and the HEC-RAS software, allowing the simulation of flood scenarios for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. The results indicate that, starting from the 5-year return period, water levels exceed 4.60 meters, significantly increasing the risk of overflow. Based on these findings, the need to implement mitigation strategies and territorial planning is emphasized, including improvements in the drainage system and preventive measures to reduce the impact of flooding on local populations and infrastructure.