Conflicto armado entre Ucrania y Rusia, y su impacto en la balanza comercial de Ecuador.

Abstract

It is worth mentioning that our country has a very important relationship with Russia, because it is the fifth exporting country for Ecuador, this investigative work has as main objective to determine the incidence of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia on the commercial activities of Ecuador. This research work focuses on the analysis of the trade balance before and after the conflict, and how it has been affected through the armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia, in order to finish whether it has suffered a deficit or has had a surplus. The work contains a descriptive investigation, with a research method of time series analysis, for this reason an autoregressive model was created, to show what is the impact of the Ecuadorian trade balance after this war. For the respective analysis, data was considered in real terms in thousands of dollars, obtained from the ECB by quarters, covering the years from 1995 to 2021. The results presented show that the trade balances have movements in accordance with the world trade dynamics and their positive effects are They almost always come with time lags as can be seen in the estimation models