Modelo econométrico para pronosticar la producción de café en ecuador

Abstract

The objective of this work is to carry out an econometric study using simple moving average in order to estimate the production of coffee from the year 2022 onwards. Ecuador, due to its geographic location, has appropriate soils for the cultivation of coffee; for this reason, it is one of the few countries in the world that exports in greater quantity the Arabica and Robusta varieties, making it one of the best producers in South America, with great acceptance in the European market. Coffee is mainly produced by small family farms. The country produces 135,000 bags of 60 kg of arabica coffee annually and some 200,000 hectares of both high quality arabica coffee and low quality robusta coffee are currently planted in Ecuador. For the resolution of this research corresponds to a non-experimental work under a cross-sectional design of importing data available from the Agricultural Public Information System to the Excel 2016 program, a mixed type approach using the simple moving average statistical method, they will be analyzed by an appropriate model that responds to the proposed objective. A forecast result was obtained, which for the year 2026 will result in a production of about 30.40 tons of coffee crop. In addition, the correlation coefficient was obtained, which shows that this model is very acceptable. In this sense, the study carried out responds to the need raised from the analysis of coffee production in Ecuador.