Series temporales: una proyección de las exportaciones del sector camaronero ecuatoriano, periodo 2022 - 2024

Abstract

The main objective of this research work is to forecast shrimp exports measured in pounds and millions of dollars for the period 2022-2024, a non-experimental and cross-sectional descriptive research was applied, the statistical analysis is carried out through time series, comparing linear, quadratic, exponential and logarithmic models, and choosing the best model through the comparison of its R2. The model that best adjusted to the behavior of the Ecuadorian shrimp export data, was of the quadratic type, both for the measures in pounds and dollars, with an R2 of 0.99 and 0.96 respectively, giving as a forecast for the year 2022 a production of 2,2022,935,914 pounds and $5,034,422,560 , for 2023 a positive variation is maintained with 2,293,507,092 pounds and $5,519,415,157 and by 2024 it would produce 2,584,241,382 pounds of shrimp and $6,024,528,196 billion dollars.