Ecuador: efecto de la presión fiscal sobre la recaudación tributaria: estimación de la curva de laffer, período 2000-2020.

Abstract

For Ecuador, tax revenues play a significant role in the financing of the State since such revenues allow sustaining governmental public spending. In recent years, tax reforms have been aimed at increasing the tax burden to increase tax revenues; however, according to theory, tax increases do not necessarily produce positive results. For this reason, the objective of this study is to estimate the effect of the tax burden on tax revenues, through the empirical and econometric application of the Laffer curve, to determine the point of maximization of tax revenues in the Ecuadorian economy during the period 2000 to 2020. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration methodologies are applied together with an error correction model. The results are statistically significant and the sign of the coefficients correspond to the theory, therefore, the validity of the Laffer curve for Ecuador is ratified, in such a way that, in the short term, the optimal level of tax burden is 19.71%; likewise, the findings found in the long term and through OLS indicate that the optimal point of tax burden that maximizes tax revenues is between 25.39% and 26.49%. An economic policy implication is that in the short run the tax burden can be increased by 0.21% and eventually it can increase by an average of 6.44%. This increase should be oriented towards progressive taxes.