Ecuador: emigración y retorno en el crecimiento económico, 2000 - 2019.

Abstract

Emigration has a substantial effect on less developed countries, mainly due to the loss of human capital, which generates a shortage of highly qualified labor, reducing economic growth rates. For this reason, the objective of this study is to determine the incidence of emigration and return of Ecuadorians on the economic growth of Ecuador for the period 2000-2019. Ordinary least squares methodology and a Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration analysis were used together with an error correction model. The results show that using the ordinary least squares model a 1% increase in emigration generates an economic decrease of 0,0763% while a one percentage point increase in return allows the economy to grow by 1,0318%. There is causality between the variables and in the long term according to the methodology of Johansen and Juselius (1990) this type of relationship is maintained, in such a way that any increase of one percentage point of the emigration variable would lead to a decrease in the economy of 0,0312% while the return determinant has a positive impact, that is, an increase of one percentage point of this variable allows the economy to grow by approximately 1,6504%. Therefore, for the case of the Ecuadorian economy and in consensus with the literature, the relevance of the signs of the variables