Crecimiento económico y desempleo: validez de la ley de OKUN para Ecuador, periodo 2007:2 -2020:4.

Abstract

Unemployment represents one of the main socioeconomic problems facing society, and given its close relationship with welfare, it is an indicator of the macro stability of the national economy. Economic theory holds that economic growth is a determining factor in the reduction of the unemployment rate. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to estimate the relationship between economic growth and unemployment in Ecuador between the second quarter of 2007 and the fourth quarter of 2020. The first differences and gaps models proposed by Okun (1962) were estimated through the application of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) together with the filters that allow decomposing the series in its cyclical and trend component, as well as the application of the cointegration methodology proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) and a vector error correction model. The results leave evidence of a significant negative relationship between both variables. They suggest that on average for every 1% of output growth the unemployment rate decreases by 0,07% with the first differences model. While if the gap model is used, the unemployment rate decreases between 0,1928% and 0,2819% approximately. The cointegration analysis indicates that a one percentage point increase in output causes a reduction in the unemployment rate of 0,1216%. It is concluded that policy makers should promote the growth of production as a fundamental strategy to reduce unemployment figures in the country.