Análisis econométrico de dos variedades de banano de la finca San José ubicada en el sitio Corralitos.

Abstract

In the province of El Oro, different banana varieties have been produced, which is why it is important to analyze their yields by means of indicators, for which purpose the research objective has been "Generate a time series econometric model that allows forecasting the banana production for the next five years of the San José banana farm comparing two varieties of banana ", for this it has taken historical information of nine years of production of the San Jose Farm", located in the Corralitos site, in the canton Passage, Cavendish subgroups, five hectares, and Filipino, seven hectares, all of them of conventional banana, information to which a predictive model will be applied by means of the moving average method that allows to estimate the future production of the two varieties, after which could determine that the trend of the Philippine variety will remain above the Cavendish variety, presenting the Philippine variety has a higher seasonality index, being more productive until the middle of each year, after which its productivity decreases; the Cavendish variety is maintained throughout the year, its production being more viable. The production viability of the Cavendish variety can be concluded over Filipino, however, it is recommended to carry out more research in this regard.