Factores potenciales que inciden en la demanda china de hidrocarburos rusos.

Abstract

The demand for hydrocarbons has been widely analysed through many approaches and is increasingly gaining importance due to an energy-thirsty interconnected world. Particular interest in hydrocarbons has arisen for those net oil-exporter countries like Russia; whose concerns on international market fluctuations lead to the necessity of determining what factors potentially influence the demand for oil imports. Fittingly, a multiple linear regression model was carried out with annual data for the Chinese demand of Russian oil against GDP, population growth, price and REER. Results showed all factors to be statistically significant, except for population growth, and that Russian oil demand from China is elastic on GDP and REER, yet inelastic on Price. But more importantly, there exists a 3.9% TEER negative effect on demand when there is domestic currency appreciation. Subsequently, empirical results found on this study emphasize the need for Russia to develop policies that tackle external factors that affect its oil exports and, therefore, its economic growth.