Análisis y vulnerabilidad de los niveles del mar por cambio climático

Abstract

In the year 1861 in the city of Machala province of El Oro a new port was created in front of the Jambelí island due to the need of the population of Machala and the South of Ecuador, in order to transport by sea cocoa, banana and trade. that existed between Machala and Guayaquil, with what this port became the main one of Ecuador, years later this happened to be a port of second order, nevertheless with this, the increase of the population of Puerto Bolivar began and in spite of the natural protection that has the coastal profile, has always been exposed to possible natural disasters, it is in the channel formed between the continent and the Jambelí island, resulting in direct access to the ocean. The methodology to carry out the present investigation was based on numerical modeling provided by the Oceanographic Institute of the Ecuadorian Navy (INOCAR) with respect to the monitoring of sea level variation that allows us to determine and know the vulnerability of the sea level due to the climate change in the coastal profile of Puerto Bolívar. The present investigation could determine the different variants of sea level, one of the greatest consequences of climate change in Ecuador, is the impact it makes on the coasts due to the increase in recent years of sea level; whose studies of the hydrographic survey have shown the effects that this has on the continental coast of the Costanero Profile of Puerto Bolívar; Therefore, the main objective of this work is to evaluate the tidal behavior in the coastal profile of Puerto Bolívar, considering the level of the semi-diurnal tide, in order to obtain an estimate of the most vulnerable sectors of the coastal profile, taking into account consideration of the information from the Oceanographic Institute of the Ecuadorian Navy (INOCAR). In the investigations carried out and with the numerical modeling data provided by the Oceanographic Institute of the Ecuadorian Navy (INOCAR), the variation in sea level in the years of study from 2015 to 2017, is reflected in the increase in global temperatures detected, adding the impact on the thermal expansion of seawater and the melting of glaciers, which have caused the accelerated rise in sea level, with an average increase of 1.7 mm / year to 3.2 mm / year, because it is expected that continue to increase in this century. Taking into account in the coastal profile of Puerto Bolívar there is an increase in sea level that gave rise to the El Niño phenomenon; However, in 2018, there is a decrease in the variation of sea level and it is deduced that it will be the La Niña phenomenon due to the scarcity of precipitation this year; In addition to the precipitation systems of the winter situations, in case of activation of the marine slopes, severe atmospheric situations are obtained that are excessive of the normal. According to the International Hydrographic Organization, that to prevent natural disasters and those caused by man as environmental pollution given by carbon dioxide in essence; a hydrographic survey must be carried out twice a year for the amount of sediments, since it varies each year depending on the sediment trawls of the rivers, which flow directly into the sea, however in Ecuador due to the lack of economic resources, once a year ; the studied area has a particularity, since the profile of the coast of Puerto Bolívar is the most pronounced zone, towards the Pacific Ocean, which has Ecuador.