Evolución en las exportaciones de banano e impacto del desarrollo económico, provincia de El Oro 2011 - 2020, pre-pandemia, pandemia.

Abstract

The export of bananas is the first economic activity in the province of El Oro, which has generated a great impact in recent years on the economic development of the country, thus, it is one of the provinces with the highest percentage of exports nationwide. However, the official measures of mandatory confinement, due to the global pandemic of COVID-19, companies have been forced to take temporary measures such as reducing their production capacity for instance. Therefore, banana export activity is being seriously affected in this province. The present study aims on the analysis of the evolution of banana exports activity, and its impact in the economic development of the province of El Oro 2011-2020, pre-pandemic and pandemic period, by applying time series. This research is descriptive, and was developed with a quantitative approach, based on information obtained from historical data from the “Banco Central del Ecuador (ECB). The results obtained were presented by means of tests, such as, Hodrick-Prescott filter, Holt Winters test, Dickey-Fuller test for unit root, weapon regression with a lag and white noise test. It was determined, through the application of these tests, that the evolution of exports have been favorable for the economy in the last decade, except in 2012, where 2.32% decrease in exports is reflected due to strong winter, similarly, 2020 suffered an economic impact due to the pandemic, and according to the Winters Test, it will be analyzed that this decrease continues for 2021.